Why the gold rate is so high now and will it fall in November-December?

In recent weeks the gold rate price in India has surged to record levels. But will the gold rate price down in November-December? And what is driving the rise of the 24k gold rate and 22k gold rate in India? This article explores the key drivers, latest data and plausible outlooks.

What’s happening now: high gold rates in India

• The global benchmark for gold jumped above USD 4,000 per troy ounce. 
• In India the 24k gold rate per 10 grams has climbed steeply compared to previous years. For instance, one chart shows ~ ₹94,630 for 24k/10 gram in 2025 (to July) compared with ~ ₹64,070 in 2024. 
• Analysts note that the market is expecting continued volatility: “gold prices are likely to be volatile in the coming days… buy on dips rather than chase the rally.

Why the spike in gold rates?

Several factors are contributing to the rise in gold rates in India:

1. Global economic & geopolitical uncertainties

• Inflation, weak global growth, and geopolitical tensions raise demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. 
• The US dollar’s strength/weakness and central bank policies impact gold globally. 

2. Rupee weak and imports cost higher

• India is a large importer of gold; a weaker rupee makes imported gold costlier, pushing up domestic 22k and 24k gold rate. 
• Higher import bills widen India’s trade deficit, affecting currency dynamics. 

3. Domestic demand pattern: weddings & festivals

• Demand remains strong for gold jewellery, especially 22k/24k grades, during festivals and weddings. 
• Seasonal buying ahead of Diwali and Dhanteras can push rates up. 

4. Supply constraints & premium layers

Import duties, supply chain issues, and increased premium charges can amplify the domestic rate beyond base metal cost.

Will the gold rate price down in November-December?

Outlook

• Some forecasts for India indicate that the 22k gold rate around Oct-Nov 2025 could be in the range ₹99,000 - ₹1,05,000 per 10 g, with December-January 2026 forecasted at ₹97,000 - ₹1,08,000. 
• Global forecasts show price may still rise globally in 2026: analysts expect $4,000+ per ounce.

Interpretation

• A full drop in the gold rate price down for India in November-December seems unlikely. The forecast shows a plateau or minor dip/range rather than a sharp fall.
• If global conditions improve, rupee strengthens, or interest rates rise sharply, the domestic gold rate might soften.
• But given strong demand (festivals/weddings) and safe-haven status, risk of further uptick remains.

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